Two weeks ago I predicted that Oath of the Gatewatch would result in Abzan taking on a “fourth” color.
Tecnically, I was right; that fourth color turned out to be blue, not colorless. While the notion of curving Rhino into Reality Smasher is fantastic, the practicality of it just isn’t there. It turns out that splashing into blue, as most Abzan decks did at the start of Battle for Zendikar standard did, is a far better option. The difference in Oath of the Gatewatch, though, is Reflector Mage, the ultimate tempo play.
While the “colorless” splash for Abzan was relatively easy to pull off thanks to cards like Llanowar Wastes and Caves of Koilos, it turns out that dipping into blue is even easier. Abzan Aggro was already running cards like Flooded Strand and Sunken Hollow to smooth out its mana base and it turns out that Adding in a basic Swamp, Polluted Delta, and Prairie Stream keeps the mana reliable in what has become a four color deck. To be fair, sequencing your lands and fetches has become even more important now; Polluted Delta and Flooded Stand can only fetch for a total of four lands in the deck. The splash isn’t 100% free, but the new cards from Oath of the Gatewatch make the risk worth it.
In addition to Reflector Mage, Oath of Nissa has proven to be a fantastic play to smooth out the curve. Is it the Green Ponder many people were dubbing it? Not quite, but its power can’t be denied. The card also brings Abzan decks up to a total of 7-8 (depending on how many you’re playing) turn one plays. Considering how important it is for both the Abzan Aggro and now Abzan Blue decks to get off to a quick start, making sure you’re curving out is super important. Too many times I would take two-three turns off before dropping a swarm of Rhinos. While playing Siege Rhino is always a good thing, the new 4-Color Rally decks really couldn’t care less. I’d much rather spend three turns setting up a mid-game where I can totally dictate the pace of the game at instant speed instead of just tapping out and playing a bunch of really good cards.
Speaking of these Rally decks playing at instant speed, the blue splash allows Abzan players to dip back into playing counter-magic out of the sideboard. Previously, the best bet to defeat 4-Color Rally was keeping an Anafenza on the board (which is much harder thanks to Reflector Mage) or having Hallowed Moonlight at the right time. Adding in cards like Dispel and Negate gives you more ways to attack what has quickly become the best deck in Standard.
Moving forward, there’s going to have to be one thing on every player’s mind, regardless of the deck they’re playing: “Can I beat the Rally decks?” I have a hard time finding a deck that can consistently say “yes, without a doubt” as Rally is just too good at pulling wins out of a hat. If you can find a way, though, to make the match-up not be impossible (i.e. a situation where skilled play gets you there), then you’re sitting pretty. The other issue here though is that you don’t want to hedge yourself too much to solely beating Rally. Oath of the Gatewatch has taken an already diverse Standard metagame and expanded upon it even more. While Atarka Red took down SCG Atlanta, its return to the top tables meant it was time for people to prepare for it and hate it back out of top 8 at SCG Columbus. It’s important to find a deck that doesn’t go too “all-in” against one archetype.
What I’m saying seems like common sense, but too often people use what’s called “results oriented thinking.” They lock in on one deck in the format and will do whatever they can to beat it. At a large event, there’s plenty of times where you bring 75 cards that’s meant to beat “Deck X” and then never play “Deck X” through nine rounds; so much for beating the boogeyman that isn’t hiding under your bed. Again, all of this seems like common sense, but consider where Standard is right now compared to, say, two years ago when the format was defined by the boogeyman of Mono Black Devotion. Deck construction absolutely must consider a bevy of opposing archtypes: Atark Red, 4-Color Rally, Eldrazi, Abzan, Dark Jeskai, Mardu Green, Company, Esper Dragons, U/R Prowess, R/B Dragons, and various other brews.
Is it possible to have a deck that consistently beats all of these? Absolutely not; that’s what currently makes Standard such an enjoyable format. Still, you have to bring something that at least has a fighting chance to beat all of these matchups. Going back to my original idea for Abzan post-Oath of the Gatewatch, featuring Reality Smasher, that turns out to get absolutely hosed against aggressive red decks and Crackling Doom. I’m also stuck with a slower curve than Battle for Zendikar Abzan. To be fair, this wasn’t apparent until 1.) the meta defined itself and 2.) I did more and more testing. I still would have sleeved my list up for a tournament; you need confidence in your deck to have a chance to do well.
Not running multiple pain lands in a format where Atarka Red is ready to pounce at any moment is probably a good idea as well.
So then, what would my Abzan Blue list look like? Here you go:
Abzan Blue – Jake Valentine
Lands
4x Windswept Heath
4x Wooded Foothills
4x Flooded Strand
4x Polluted Delta
2x Canopy Vista
1x Prairie Stream
1x Sunken Hollow
1x Smoldering Marsh
2x Forest
1x Plains
1x Swamp
Creatures
4x Warden of the First Tree
2x Den Protector
4x Anafenza, the Foremost
4x Reflector Mage
4x Siege Rhino
1x Wingmate Roc
1x Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Planeswalkers
3x Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
Spells
3x Abzan Charm
2x Stubborn Denial
2x Dromoka’s Command
2x Murderous Cut
3x Oath of Nissa
Sideboard
2x Hallowed Moonlight
2x Ultimate Price
2x Jace, Vyrn’s Prodigy
2x Painful Truths
1x Negate
1x Surge of Righteousness
2x Duress
2x Dispel
1x Exert Influence
I’ve seen lists cut away from Abzan Charm. Maybe that’s the right call, but it’s so versatile that I just can’t see myself doing it. Plus it deals with Ulamog and that’s pretty darn important. In addition, Stubborn Denial is great, but super awkward to top-deck late game on an empty board, which is why I’m running two instead of the “traditional” three.
Be sure to check out our stream at twitch.tv/topdeckproductions. It’s a big weekend of Magic with the Modern Pro Tour and SCG Regionals. Have fun, everybody! I’ll see you all next week.
